Planning for renewables: Taking a national approach

Once dismissed as too expensive to expand beyond niche markets, renewables such as solar and wind can now compete with conventional energy sources on price while increasingly matching their performance.

Presently, fossil fuel reliant energy consumption and production (coal, natural gas, oil) accounts for about two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. These fossil fuels form 81% of the global energy mix. We know that emissions trends are not on track to meet goal reduction targets of the Paris Agreement.

Globally, under current and planned policies, the world would exhaust its energy-related “carbon budget” to keep the global temperate rise to well below 2°C in under 20 years, while fossil fuels would continue to dominate global energy for decades to come.

The recent increase in global power generation was driven by strong expansion in renewable energy, led by wind and solar which accounted for almost half of the total growth in power generation. Despite this it represents only 7% of total power generation. Although wind continued in its role of the bigger, more established technology, it is solar energy that is growing the fastest globally. As countries ramp up their share of solar PV and wind, they will require market reforms, grid investments, and more efficient and effective storage technologies to be developed.

Here in Australia, coal dominates our power generation comprising a total 62% of the fuel type. Renewables currently take up only 17% of the generation with hydro and wind together making 68% of that load.

It is refreshing that Australia has the highest uptake of solar globally, particularly with rooftop solar PV, this small-scale solar accounting for a further 20% of renewables. Bioenergy, usually associated with the agricultural sector like bagasse from sugar cane, and the large-scale solar farms together account for 11% of renewables.

The greatest short-term opportunity for growth appears to be with large-scale solar projects. Across the eastern state’s National Electricity market, (excluding WA and NT) coal fired power generation has decreased from 85% in 2009 to 75% today.

However, this needs to be considered against the following:

• Australia’s per capita emissions are the highest in the OECD and among the highest in the world.

• Australia’s emission target, under the Paris Agreement is to be 26-28% below 2005 levels by the year 2030. On current figures scientific commentators predict that we will miss the target by 21%.
• Electricity generation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia.
• Coal has a carbon intensity of about 1,000g CO2/kWh (grams of CO2 per kilowatt HOUR) compared to hydro, wind and solar which are all less then 50g CO2/kWh¹.

 It has been estimated that Australia would need to shut 12 coal power stations by 2030 to do what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is necessary to avoid the effects of climate change.

Governments have an important role in delivering sustainable and reliable power. NSW has made a start, through the Transmission Infrastructure Strategy which will help to accelerate delivery of poles and wires to priority areas of the State with renewable energy resources.

The process of improving our energy networks and incorporating a greater percentage of renewable energy resources is complex and will need close collaboration between all levels of Government, regulators and the Australian Energy Market Operator.

Australia has no national policy on climate change and therefore no effective framework for transformation of the energy sector in response to climate impacts. Australian governments have failed to deliver affordable, reliable energy in a way that is consistent with meeting our emissions reduction targets.

The planning approvals and development assessment processes differ from state to state and from energy type and there are real challenges experienced by investors in addressing the multi layers of approvals and documentation and varying timeframes for assessment throughout the country.

We need clear government policy to be developed and put in place. A clear set of national guidelines for renewables, supported by all jurisdictions, would be preferable so that proponents know exactly where they stand and what the rules of the game are.

If we think about our energy sector and the opportunity and importance for renewables it is critical to develop a land use planning system that sits within a national framework. We need to encourage and support investment, particularly from the international providers who have access to a wide range of cutting edge technology.