By Andrew Kinnaird | 15 Jan 2018

The Melbourne greenfield development site market has experienced a significant repricing over the last 12-18 months. 

The primary cause of the development site repricing is the well-publicised significant growth in house lot prices being sold off the plan. This growth has been fueled by population growth, historically low interest rates, Government incentives and supply of new estates with planning approval falling behind demand. 

Urbis’ analysis highlights four examples in Melbourne’s greenfield areas, of development site price growth on a cash equivalent per developable hectare basis. These sales show that development site prices have been growing at some 5% per month over the last 12 to 18 months (all growth rates quoted are not compounding).

Growth in house lot prices has attracted new players to the market and created a highly competitive market for development sites in Melbourne’s greenfield market.

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As developers sell out their existing estates, they look to buy new development sites to replenish their stock. The growth in house lot prices has also attracted new players to the market, including overseas developers. This has created a highly competitive market for development sites in Melbourne’s greenfield market. 

Due to this strong competition, developers have been purchasing land with lower returns than traditionally expected or are factoring in strong future growth in house lot prices. The continued growth in house lot prices throughout 2017 has vindicated many of the development site purchase prices earlier in 2017. 

The growth story is not limited to one growth corridor, all of Melbourne’s greenfield markets have experienced significant price growth. 

The questions about the sustainability of the growth trajectory for both house lot and development site prices have been increasing in recent months and are expected to continue as Melbourne’s established house price growth eases. 

For Andrew’s analysis of what this means for the future, view his full article on LinkedIn