Planning for growth: Victoria to be home to more than ten million people by 2050

By 2050, Victoria will be home to more than ten million people, with eight million expected to reside in Melbourne and over two million in regional areas.

By 2050, Victoria will be home to more than ten million people, with eight million expected to reside in Melbourne and over two million in regional areas. The New Plan for Victoria, which will replace the current Plan Melbourne to become Victoria’s first state-wide plan, brings Victoria into line with the emerging strategic directions of Australia’s other capital cities, including New South Wales and its ‘Six Cities Region’ vision. As Victoria evolves and grows, Urbis agrees that we need holistic, integrated and smarter solutions to address the State’s planning challenges.

We commend the Victorian Government’s commitment to a state-wide strategic plan and the adoption of city-region thinking to drive Victoria’s growth.

Recent Consultation

We recently prepared a submission to the Victorian Government’s first round of consultation, based upon the ‘‘Big Ideas for Victoria’s Future’’ brochure. It outlines the key priorities that Victorians want the government to focus on through 2051, across the four key identified themes:

Priorities	Objectives
Affordable housing and choice	Providing all Victorians with a choice of a well-designed home, at an affordable price and close to daily needs.
Equity and jobs	Enabling all Victorians to have access to jobs, schools, healthcare and shops so that they can lead prosperous lives.
Thriving and liveable suburbs and towns	Creating connected, well-designed, vibrant and inclusive communities for everyone to call home.
Sustainable environments and climate action	Protecting our environment, agricultural land and natural resources for a sustainable and healthy future.

Stakeholder responses to the above pillars will contribute to the New Plan, which will be released in late 2024 after sustained strategic work and consultation.

Summary of Urbis’ recommendations:

We recommended the following considerations as the State Government prepare the draft New Plan:

Adopt a spatial framework that reflects the transition from a metropolitan to state-wide plan, resulting in strategic foundations relative to local and state-wide targets.

Prioritise strategic efforts in transit-oriented activity centres and their catchments, focusing on locations without existing frameworks to unlock new economic and housing growth.

Set short- and long-term housing, employment, climate and biodiversity targets with accountability measures that drive local action, review and re-calibration in an iterative process. These targets should take primacy over local policies in order to deliver logical and planned growth.

Support Councils with incentives to reward local efforts that meet state targets with a commensurate response of funding, infrastructure and resources.

Unlock development ready land with strategic re-zoning and settlement boundaries that realise meaningful community outcomes from residential and economic uplifts.

Attract private sector investment through continued delivery of stream-lined processes as construction costs, tax levies and landholding costs continue to grow.

Review opportunities in legislation to unlock new housing supply, such as revision to Strata Laws consistent with other States.

Strengthen fast-track approval processes through deemed-to-comply standards that maintain high quality development while recognising that alternative solutions can meet design objectives and further development of State facilitated development pathways for strategic sites.

Facilitate greater flexibility in balancing outcomes to ensure the strategic intent of projects remain viable and outweigh minor variations to preferred detailed design measures.

Direct greater investment to open source and real-time data, as well as resource transparency to enable informed decisions on development risk early in project feasibility processes.

Read on for a more in depth exploration of our recommendations across the four major priorities.

Affordable housing and choice

Urbis supports the State government’s efforts in increasing housing supply in line with Victoria’s population growth, and as set out In Victoria’s Housing Statement. The introduction of housing targets and the Clause 53.23 provision to streamline the delivery of significant residential with affordable housing has been necessary steps in the right direction to deliver housing approvals more quickly. Urbis We strongly support stream-lined pathways and urge the Government to further discuss with the development sector how State Pathways can continue to mature and increase planning approvals and housing supply for large strategic sites across Victoria.

In order to address concerns raised by Councils regarding challenges in meeting targets, we encourage ongoing engagement with the relevant government and industry bodies to further break down the barriers to new housing provision and identify new initiatives.

We recommend that the New Plan addresses the following key matters:

Balancing growth in strategic areas: Plan Melbourne previously set an aspirational target where 70% of additional dwellings would be located within established Melbourne and 30% in the growth areas. Further action is needed to acknowledge the important role that growth areas play in accommodating growth and providing accommodation at an affordable price point. The New Plan should also build on the strengths of the Activity Centre Pilot Program by targeting housing growth within an 800-metre catchment of existing and proposed railway stations.

Interim targets, milestones and accountability: Interim timeframes, regular monitoring and accountability measures provide agility and certainty to evolving housing needs. Housing delivery should align with milestones that measure progress and include guidance on accountability, such as incentives, rewards, or penalties.

Affordable housing & incentives: The New Plan needs to address affordable housing, including objectives to deliver a more appropriate range of housing for both renters and buyers, including key workers, students and low-income households, and families with children. Addressing social and affordable housing also requires considering factors affecting affordability, including taxation, construction costs, and labour shortages.

Key actions should include:

Outcome	Key Actions
Balancing growth in strategic areas	Prioritise transit-oriented locations without existing growth frameworks, focusing on establishing new activity centres rather than reinforcing existing strategic work.
	Support amendments to building height controls within residential zones around commercial centres and stations, allowing for developments exceeding three storeys to drive significant change in these areas.
	Develop inclusionary zoning in greenfield and urban renewal areas that incentivise developers to provide affordable and/or additional housing as part of new developments, particularly where opportunities for increased uplift are available.
Interim targets, milestones and accountability	Establish iterative targets for ongoing review and recalibration to better understand the appetite and capacity of local government areas to meet their targets.
Interim targets, milestones and accountability	Set local incentives to drive the collective ambition to meet local government area targets and therefore, state-wide targets.
Affordable housing & incentives	Deliver targeted rental stock in collaboration with registered housing providers, including via Build to Rent, Build-to-Rent-to-Buy or other similar arrangements.
	Enable developer-managed affordable built-to-rent schemes, as exist in other countries such as the United States.
	Explore incentives, targets or other levers to reduce costs specific to affordable housing delivery to improve its viability as a solution to Victoria’s housing crisis, including tools such as density bonus incentives or discounts to development contributions.

Equity and jobs

Projections indicate that over 10 million people will live in Victoria in 2050, resulting in 4.5 million more people compared to the recent 2021 census. How and where the New Plan positions residential growth and associated commercial and community infrastructure has consequences for Victorians’ quality of life, the economy, and the natural environment.

The introduction of the Clause 53.22 provision to streamline the delivery of significant economic development has fast-tracked approvals for employment-generating and service-providing projects has been effective. As Victoria’s population grows, Urbis also welcomes efforts to change behaviour around car dependency and help enable people from across the state to have better access to public transport options, community infrastructure and job opportunities to make places more liveable.

We recommend that the New Plan addresses the following key matters:

Employment statement: The introduction of an employment statement ensures a balanced decision-making considering location and provision of employment relative to housing. There are countless benefits of aligning the location and density of jobs with housing, the main being the creation of sustainable and equitable city growth, as already recognised in the 20-minute neighbourhood principle.

Economic land and employment targets: The Victorian Government developed the Melbourne Industrial and Commerce Land Use Plan (MICLUP) in 2020, which built on the relevant policies and actions of Plan Melbourne. As the New Plan is set to consider all areas across the state, this provides a great opportunity to review current and future needs for industrial and commercial land.

State standard guidelines and frameworks: We support frameworks and guidelines, similar to NSW ‘Guideline for local employment land strategies’, made by the Victorian Government as parent guides to help local Councils and create better consistency. Such documents would support the development of a cohesive vision across the state.

Infrastructure plans: Developing and publishing long-term plans for infrastructure sectors will support Victoria in meeting the policies and targets set by the New Plan. These land use and infrastructure plans will also facilitate decisions on infrastructure project funding.

Transport infrastructure: The Victorian State Government’s current investment includes significant investments in various transport modes, however the split between road-based transport investment and sustainable transport investment is still not reflective of the overall sustainable vision.

Key actions should include:

Outcome	Key Actions
Employment statement	Establish an Employment Statement which aligns with the Housing Statement.
Economic land and employment targets	Set ambitious employment targets for local Councils and core employment areas
	Identify strategic employment land with reference to local economic identities.
	Develop a planning framework that supports both state and local governments to plan for future employment and industry needs more effectively, and better inform future strategic directions.
State standard guidelines and frameworks	Establish local employment land strategies that shape the future of land use in local government areas in a co-ordinated approach.
State standard guidelines and frameworks	Set out clear state-led processes and include a robust evidence base to inform each local economic strategy and associated actions.
Infrastructure plans	Plan for and deliver infrastructure that supports more people and jobs locating in established parts of major regional centres, including local transport, energy, water and digital infrastructure.
	Reform infrastructure contributions, remove taxes and subsidies that fuel dispersed growth, and change planning rules to create a more efficient system and increase Australian attraction for investment and growth.
	Analyse the cumulative impacts of infrastructure fees on the feasibility of development projects and align infrastructure contributions between local and state costs.
Transport infrastructure	Deliver viable transport choices for the community and attractive alternatives to private vehicle use through greater emphasis on sustainable transport investment at all government levels.

Thriving and liveable suburbs and towns

The New Plan aims to create communities that are better connected, well-designed, and inclusive for all members. A key focus is cultivating a sense of place and identity for communities and understanding how each community identity will interact with new developments, sustainability goals and infrastructure provision.

While we acknowledge the role that planning plays in providing facilities that contribute to a functional and liveable neighbourhood, planning policies and actions do not create local identities organically. Community input is the key driver in effectively and meaningfully shape suburbs and towns through placemaking initiatives.

We recommend that the New Plan addresses the following key matters:

Localising place and identity: Victoria requires state-wide placemaking strategies that identify key visions and initiatives for implementation. The New Plan should include programming and activation benchmarks with a schedule outlining key locations for each initiative, based on the communities’ specific character and vision.

Infrastructure provision: We encourage greater focus on infrastructure provision that will be developed in response to this plan. The priority identifies the importance of community facilities such as parks, services and access to diverse transport options for all communities, including a focus on safe cycling routes for children and other vulnerable groups.

Funding and feasibility: It is crucial to understand the specific stakeholders involved in the delivery of new and revitalised infrastructure. Whilst identified that this will benefit all members of the community, it has not been identified who will provide the infrastructure.

Key actions should include:

Outcome	Key Actions
Localising place and identity	Introduce stretch targets for greening and rewilding relevant to context and bioregion, and utilise critical view corridors to key geographic and natural features to enhance connection to country and site identity.
	Develop short-term placemaking strategies that align with the seasonal cycle, encompassing events that foster community engagement, including child-friendly outcomes.
	Invest in, and create accessible, inclusive public spaces at a neighbourhood and street level to enhance social connectivity, public health and wellbeing.
	Recognise cultural heritage and connection to country, including collaboration with local Indigenous community groups.
Infrastructure provision	Determine requirements for infill development and new development areas that apply to both local governments and private development to ensure the provision of infrastructure across sectors shares the cost of growth between existing and future users.
	Benchmark taxes and contributions from other comparable states to ensure they are not creating market distortion.
	Provide greater certainty around the timing of the delivery of State infrastructure within Melbourne’s growth areas and associated expenditure of Growth Area Contribution funding.
	Support contributions that consider that multiple different financial requirements can reduce feasibility of projects particularly noting the cumulative effect of other property taxes.
Funding and feasibility	Provide guidance on how public and private sector requirements will affect development feasibility, and in turn, impact the delivery of essential housing and employment supply in proximate locations.
Funding and feasibility	Encourage better coordination between sectors and identifying mechanisms that ensure a balanced distribution of infrastructure provision across sectors.

Sustainable environments and climate change

Victoria’s growing population, projected to reach 10 million by 2050, will increase pressure on urban growth boundaries, biodiversity, and tree canopy cover. New housing, infrastructure, and public transport options must co-exist with our natural environments, water systems, and agricultural land.

Housing and employment targets must be managed carefully to ensure they lead to high-quality, liveable environments, including an adequate provision of green spaces and managing construction impacts. The New Plan must be ambitious in directing densification to the right locations to maximise Victoria’s urban and rural potential, whilst also setting stretch targets for net gain in biodiversity and rewilding.

Urbis recommends that the New Plan addresses the following key matters:

Transparency & informed decision-making: Sustainable building practices require investment in the transparency and quality of real-time data platforms. The development industry can only make informed decisions that contribute to sustainable living outcomes when useful natural hazard risk information is universally available.

Financing green buildings: Victoria is championing sustainable and energy-efficient building practices through various initiatives. Plan Melbourne 2017-2050 and the Victorian Planning Provisions promote sustainable urban growth and mandate sustainable design elements in new developments. The New Plan must maintain Victoria’s commitment to the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals 2030 and the global effort to combat the adverse effects of climate change.

Protecting natural systems: Sustainable management of urban green spaces brings numerous benefits for the community, including recreational opportunities, improved mental and physical health, increased levels of social engagement, reduced urban heat island effect, and enhanced property values.

Balancing density and agricultural land: Densifying a network of metropolitan and regional centres is the key to unlocking our potential to manage township boundaries sustainably.

Transport gaps: Victoria relies on train and road infrastructure projects and improving other sustainable transport modes, such as cycling infrastructure and bus service coverage and frequency is crucial to reducing car dependence.

Key actions should include:

Outcome	Key Actions
Transparency & informed decision-making	Invest in current state-wide toolkits to address deficiencies in data that impacts the viability of development projects, such as flood risks.
	Deliver greater transparency of information on data platforms, with the information currently available to planning stakeholders largely outdated or only accessible to government authorities.
	Ensure data is made accessible to those most affected, including local Councils, landowner and developers.
Financing green buildings	Prepare the development industry to undertake sustainable building practices by offsetting the initial costs of building greener homes by providing rebates for the additional cost of developing a green star certified homes.
	Incentivise households and businesses with discounted energy-efficient products and solar panel rebates to aid Victorians in reducing energy bills and contributing to sustainable outcomes.
	Adopt a universal sustainability standard and measurement tool at a State Level to avoid the disparate current approach with different standards Council by Council.
Protecting natural systems	Support initiatives that co-ordinate and streamline approvals under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999.
	Conduct further strategic work to strengthen implementation and enforcement of biodiversity offsetting policies, improve monitoring and reporting.
	Invest in ecological research and support development of species recovery plans and threat abatement plans and engage local communities in conservation efforts.
Balancing density and agricultural land	Target protection of fertile agricultural land within urban fringes to balance city growth with agricultural preservation, including agricultural land within 150 kilometres of Melbourne to preserve Melbourne’s food bowl.
	Balance the need for housing in suitable greenfield areas, mechanisms for boosting peri-urban and regional economies, and consideration for long-term property market viability.
	Facilitate densification in metropolitan and regional centres, including new uplift in Melbourne’s existing towns more housing opportunities close to jobs, services, and amenities, improving access to opportunities and reducing commuting times.
Transport gaps	Identify transport gaps connecting urban and regional centres.
	Support for rail infrastructure to enhance other sustainable transport provisions modes for providing access to local residences and workplaces from major rail nodes.
	Develop pedestrian-friendly environments with high walkability, permeability and enhanced tree canopy coverage, with greater support for destination-based development, such as shops, schools, and parks within identified activated.

We look forward to the ongoing development, further submission and engagement opportunities, and eventual release of the New Plan for Victoria in 2024 to help unlock and achieve smarter solutions to address the State’s planning challenges.

Published: September 24, 2024